Japan acts against China, more than the US

Japan is emerging as the unlikeliest centre for protests against expansionist China in the post-Covid era and an intrigued world wonders what brought about a frosting of the friendship between Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Prospects of a big summit between the two leaders are thin now, with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party in Japan shoving internal differences aside to openly demand calling off of President’s Xi’s proposed visit to Tokyo following China’s imposition of a stringent new criminal law in Hong Kong News.

The media quoted Liberal Democratic Party’s diplomatic panel chief Yasuhide Nakayama as announcing: “We have no choice but to urge (the government) to cancel President Xi’s state visit.”

The visit appears jinxed. It was supposed to be a follow-up of President Abe’s visit to China in 2018 that brought about a thaw in Sino-Japanese relations strained since 2012 over the ownership of the small but militarily significant Senkaku/Diaoyu islands off the East China Sea.

First, it was the outbreak of Covid-19. Initially, Japan warmed to China’s efforts to contain the spread of the disease inside the country. There was people-to-people bonhomie on the social media. All that dissipated as the world began to corner China over its alleged withholding of information about the outbreak and the possibility of human-to-human transmission of the disease.

Then came the bad news. The cancellation of Olympics 2020 scheduled to be held in Japan, which had pumped in around $12.5 billion–translating to 35 trillion yen–into the event. The International Olympic Committee did pitch in with $800 million, but the huge remainder was Japan’s investment, shared between the local and national governments and the organising committee of Japan. That’s a white elephant now in Japan’s balance sheet.

At a time when anger is brewing against China over its ‘expansionist’ policies that have affected India, Japan and other South Asian nations, massive protests took place in Japan demanding that Chinese president Xi Jinping be replaced with a democratically elected ‘ responsible leader’.

Jinping’s expansionist policies in Tibet, along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in India, over the Senkaku islands in Japan, have upset the global community that is battling Covid-19 pandemic, which also originated from China. Add to this, the suppression of pro-democracy voices in Hong Kong, which have put Beijing at the epicentre of global criticism.

The Sunday protests, which took place at the famous Hachiko statue near Shibuya station in Tokyo had human rights activists of various nationalities, including Japanese, Indians, Taiwanese, Tibetans and others. This protest occurred in the context of Xi’s dictatorial style of working—a trait unbecoming of an aspiring world leader, therefore, the demand to replace him with a “responsible leader who shall be democratically elected by the Chinese people”.

These disputed islands are equidistant, barely 105 miles–from Taiwan and the closest Japanese island of Ishigaki. Japan purchased them from a private individual in 2012 and administers them. Both China and Taiwan contest their sovereignty, although it is China that has tried to militarily bully Japan over the dispute. They nearly came to a confrontation in 2013.

As early as January, Abe was showing signs of joining the world clamour over China’s alleged Covid secrecy. He took the World Health Organisation (WHO) route, becoming one of the initial leaders to seek active participation of Taiwan–China’s bette noire–in the WHO efforts to combat the spread of the virus. “It will be difficult to maintain health and prevent further infections in this region if (Taiwan) is excluded for political reasons.”

Japan has favourable ties with Taiwan on a non-governmental basis and Taiwanese visitors account for over 15 per cent of all foreign tourists to Japan. In June, Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso would go to the extent of saying the WHO should be renamed as the “Chinese Health Organisation” for the latter toeing China’s line on the pandemic.

Verbal fisticuffs between the United States and China polarised the world even as it mediated the Covid crisis. In Japan, the far right began pressurising Abe to cancel Xi’s visit then set for April. The hawks among them did not favour according President Xi the honour of being a state guest.

Another measure was a call for Japanese industry engaged inside China to return home. In March, the government announced a $2 billion package for that purpose.

The call for return was strange because the Japanese economy, third in the world after US and China, is inextricably linked to China. Japan’s manufacturing is part-Japan and part-China. Then, the nearness of a colossal market for Japanese products. Plus, the huge number of tourists annually. Any sudden reduction in the dependence on China could adversely affect Japanese economic growth.

In June, the Abe government went ahead and announced the initial subsidy package of $535 million to 57 companies to relocate their factories inside Japan and 30 more companies to open shop in South-East Asia–Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar. Storage organisation manufacturer Iris Ohyama became the first Japanese company to accept the subsidy. It has been shifting out of China over the years, transferring its business to Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, apart from the US and France.

Is that what the future beholds for foreign companies in China? This is a clearest signal that at least Japan is intent on reducing its dependence on China even though China is its largest trading partner. Japan officially says the Covid crisis, the Senkaku dispute, the 2011 Japanese earthquake and the 2008 global financial crisis disrupted supply chains impacting Japanese economy. The idea is to shift production centres to places where human resource costs are low and are closer to where the products are consumed. This is the current business ideology Japan propagates.

China has reacted strongly to all these actions emanating from Japan. Its foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian told reporters that Japanese people were hyping up unnecessary, adding China neither has time for them nor interest in them.

Last fortnight, a Nikkei/TV Tokyo poll claimed that 62 per cent of the respondents wanted Xi’s Tokyo visit to be cancelled—keeping with the political sentiment in Japan. Seventy per cent of these were supporters of opposition parties like Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Democratic Party for the People. A sizeable section belonged to the government’s junior coalition partner Komeito, which favours friendly ties with China.

Japan, however, appears firm in maintaining economic distance from China, and Hong Kong as well. It has used several Chinese actions since the Covid spread, including the new Hong Kong law, as pretexts to achieve its objective.

But is it only economic consideration that Japan has in mind? Not necessarily. Japan appears to be hedging its bets at present. It watches the growing global impatience with Chinese expansionist traits and economic bullying and sees how countries like India are beginning to stand up to it. It sees the emergence of blocs in south-east and far-east Asia and the Quad, as measures by groups of countries–incidentally China has disputes with all and it tries to bully them regularly–to counter China.

The United States is a cheeky customer. Despite the sharpening economic war with China and the anti-China rhetoric over Covid, the Americans are yet to announce sanctions that substantially affect China or Hong Kong. Concrete Japanese actions should inspire the US to be more serious about protecting the interests of its friends in Asia. Else, the Asian countries are better off organising themselves into a large, physical bloc to prevent China from acting at whim. Japan’s growing ties with fellow Asian countries, embellished by its companies establishing production centres in those countries, is an indicator of things to come. That is why China is more concerned about Japan’s action than even the United States’.

The peoples’ protest in Tokyo by Indians, Taiwanese, Tibetans, Japanese and many more nationalities from Asia is a sign that it is not just nations, but people too who fret about China’s destructive actions.